Extrapolation suggests that the center will be back over water south of Cuba soon. If this materializes Ike might not weaken as much as previously shown. And the new official intensity forecast is adjusted slightly upward while Ike is over the warm waters of the Caribbean. In about 2 days Ike is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico where the waters are warm and the shear is forecast to be low and restrengthening is forecast.
The latest five-day forecast has Ike entering the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning headed for the Texas coast near Houston, but the NHC warns that it's still too early to tell where Ike will land along the Gulf Coast.
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