The next day, in The Daily Advertiser, Cpl. Mark Francis of the Lafayette Police Department said the shooting was evidence of increasing violence in the city. "Lafayette is changing," he said. "We're starting to see more and more of these serious types of incidents week after week."
Shortly after the mall murder, Francis reiterated to The Independent Weekly that crime was on the rise in Lafayette but said the spike is primarily in property crimes. "As a matter of fact," he said, "for the most part, it's burglaries. We're getting a lot of residential daytime burglaries. We're dealing with a lot of car thefts. So, yeah, crime is on the rise."
Francis then stated that crime has followed a population increase in Lafayette. With some 20 vacancies in his department, he said there were too many officers working overtime to police the city effectively. "That's why we've been working very hard trying to fill the vacancies," he said, "and once we're able to do that, we need to go back to the council and ask for some additional people. We're going to need more resources to do what we need to do to police this city safely."
Discussion boards on The Daily Advertiser's Web site blamed New Orleans evacuees as part of the equation. One reader wrote: "Come on, as much as we all love New Orleans, everyone knows it has a high crime rate. That doesn't just go away ' it moves. Even if you leave the Katrina factor out of it, look at the statistics ' crime in Lafayette is on the rise, regardless of the reason."
Another reader stated: "In case you've been hiding in a cave somewhere since Katrina [and before], violent crime IS on the rise in Lafayette. I don't need to be politically correct, I do put a lot of blame on the influx of people from the New Orleans area."
A recent Times of Acadiana story carried this headline: "Police chief believes there's a correlation between population and crime." The article cited a spokesman for Claritas, a national marketing research firm, who stated the initial post-Katrina population of Lafayette was in decline. However, Interim Lafayette Police Chief Jim Craft said he believed Lafayette's expanded population accounted for the increase in crime. As evidence, The Times cited police statistics for increased traffic citations and car accidents. The article ended by noting the vacancies within the police department and telling interested readers how to apply for a job on the force.
The Advertiser tempered its earlier reporting with a Sept. 2 article titled "Police: Crime under control." The paper's previous tone of violent crime running amok was changed to report some areas of crime were on the rise ' particularly rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, thefts and car thefts.
Every year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation publishes uniform crime statistics, compiled from data provided by 17,000 law enforcement agencies across the nation. The annual report Crime in the United States gives a snapshot of crime on both national and local levels. From 2001 until 2005, violent crime in Lafayette has been on the decline, falling from 1,045 to 991. Violent crime includes murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.
According to the FBI's preliminary annual Uniform Crime Report for 2005, violent crime in the United States rose by 2.5 percent from 2004, while property crimes dropped 1.6 percent. As a whole, violent crime offenses reported to law enforcement in Lafayette dropped slightly in 2005 from the previous year, despite rumors of a rampant post-Katrina crime wave. Robberies fell from 163 in 2004 to 141 in 2005, and aggravated assaults dropped from 765 to 751. However, murders rose slightly from six to eight in 2005, and rapes increased from 86 to 91.
For the same time periods, property crimes also declined from 7,283 in 2004 to 6,233 in 2005. Burglaries fell from 1,332 to 1,125, and larceny and theft dropped from 5,546 to 4,688. There were 15 more car thefts in 2005 then in 2004 ' up from 405 to 420.
Comparing crime statistics provided by the Lafayette Police Department for the first six months of 2005 and 2006 gives some insight into the current state of Lafayette crime.
There were 79 rapes in the first half of 2006, compared with 46 for the first six months of 2005 and 91 for the entire year. In the same period for 2005, there were five murders and six murders for 2006. At the end of June 2006, there were 154 robberies, compared to 141 for the entire year of 2005. Assaults, theft, and burglaries have risen slightly, but auto thefts nearly doubled, jumping from 188 for the first six months in 2005 to 348 during the same period this year.
But it's impossible to blame increased crime on a larger population without reliable population figures. There are no definitive numbers on Lafayette's current population, much less the population pre- and post-Katrina. The last census figures come from 2000, and the next census is still four years away. Even stranger is that in the four months following Hurricane Katrina, crime didn't increase and was slightly lower than the previous eight months. "Following the storms," Francis says, "things really were quiet. Then right at the first of the year things accelerated."
George Wooddell, associate professor of sociology at UL Lafayette, and fellow professor Bob Grambling took a stab at determining Lafayette's population for a United Way of Acadiana survey, with mixed results. "We fought hard to try to get some kind of data that we could depend on in terms of the raw numbers," Wooddell says. "We fought FEMA. They have the information, but they won't release it. We finally dealt with the post office, asking them about changes of address. But to tell you the truth, we don't feel like we can depend on any of that.
"You can't know [if there's an] increase in crime, unless you know and compare it to the increase in population," Wooddell continues. "You've got raw numbers, but they can be deceptive."
Even population statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau are unreliable. The 2005 American Community Survey lists pre-Katrina population figures for the Lafayette metropolitan statistical area (Lafayette and St. Martin parishes) at 223,068 and post Katrina at 233,861, an increase in population of more than 10,000 people. But the margin of error for both sets of numbers averages about 23,600.
John Logan, a professor of sociology at Brown University in Providence, R.I., says the most recent data comes from postal changes of address. As of June 30, there were 7,121 households with New Orleans zip codes having their mail forwarded to Lafayette zip codes, suggesting an influx of anywhere from 15,000 to 20,000 people. Logan cautions that his numbers aren't precise and are only estimations.
Assuming those numbers are in the ballpark, Logan estimates Lafayette's population may have increased by upwards of 15 percent. "If the number of crimes went up in the last year by 15 percent, that would seem normal," he says. But Logan says that unless the crime rate (the number of crimes divided by the population ) has increased, crime isn't really on the rise. "In fact," he adds, "if the number of crimes went up less than the population, the real phenomenon to think about is a drop in the crime rate." And Logan doesn't consider Katrina a factor. "I would be cautious about any interpretation," he says, "including the Katrina one, without more clear evidence. What you have, and what the police have, is a list of possibilities but not enough information to favor any one of them."
Even Francis doesn't connect recent crime with New Orleans evacuees. "We know that we have more people in this city, but we can't say that [New Orleans evacuees] are responsible for X amount of crime," he says. "It's just too early to determine that at this point. We've had a few isolated incidents involving New Orleans residents. But to say that the bulk of what we're dealing with is New Orleans residents, we can't attribute that to that right now. We just don't have enough data at this point."
Even the police don't have any numbers on Lafayette's current population. "Nobody's been able to put a number on that," Francis says, addding that police are experiencing an average 10 percent increase in calls.
Without an accurate accounting of the population, the question of whether Lafayette's crime rate is rising or declining is unknown. "It's too early to determine exactly what we're dealing with," Francis says. "We've just been sounding the horn, saying this is what we've got."
For the first time in at least five years, retired teachers, state workers and school system employees could see an increase in their pension checks.
Lawmakers and Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration shared a collective sigh of relief with the news that Louisiana's tax amnesty program brought in the $200 million that they used to help balance this year's budget.
Drew Brees often makes the extraordinary look routine, particularly during night games in the Superdome.
The teams were extended invitations Sunday for the New Year's Day matchup played at Raymond James Stadium, home of the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here's your daily look at late-breaking national and international news, upcoming events and the stories that will be talked about Monday, December 09, 2013:
If all 44 projects are approved, about $300 million would remain in the fund set up as a down payment to help the Gulf.
Last week, the Saints gave up 429 yards to Seattle, second most in a game this season.
Since Anthony Jennings and Brooks Haack were not expected to contribute until next year at the earliest, it seemed like a sneak peek at hidden Christmas gifts.
Louisiana National Guard personnel seeking benefits for same-sex spouses will have an easier time filing the requests, despite a state refusal to let its workers process the paperwork.
Panthers coach Ron Rivera sees one potential flaw with his team's stellar defensive play so far this season. "Apparently we like to bite on the double moves," Rivera said.
Computer hackers may have gained access to the personal information of thousands of Louisiana residents who use debit cards issued by JPMorgan Chase for three state agencies, authorities said Wednesday.
Jim Purcell, who has been in the job since February 2011, notified the Board of Regents about his decision at its monthly meeting.
Hushed plans for a commercial development along the Louisiana Avenue portion of the Holy Rosary campus put the future of longtime tenant EarthShare Gardens in jeopardy.
If a recent advertisement in The Daily Advertiser is any indication, speculation the local daily will be implementing the “Butterfly Project” could be more of a reality than the Gannett-owned paper’s top execs are willing to admit.
Mettenberger injured his left knee while unloading a 32-yard completion in the fourth quarter of No. 14 LSU's 31-27 victory over Arkansas last Friday, and LSU coach Les Miles confirmed the severity of the injury on Wednesday.
An ordinance to phase out a 2 percent rebate to Lafayette merchants for collecting and remitting on time sales taxes cleared the City-Parish Council by a 6-3 vote.
Louisianans are the fourth most likely to use profanity yet also the fourth most likely to be courteous. So, please, just kiss my a** ... if it’s not too much trouble.
The state Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority voted Tuesday to authorize two lawsuits against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
A long night on the field in Seattle got even worse off of it, and now the Saints are operating on a compressed time-frame as they brace for surging Carolina with first place in the NFC South at stake.
Public school letter grades, teacher evaluations and student promotion won't be affected by Louisiana's shift to more rigorous educational standards for two years, the state's top school board decided Tuesday.
Vitter told The Associated Press that he is sending an email to supporters Wednesday and is in discussions with his family about the possibility.
The Ragin' Cajuns go for New Orleans Bowl three-peat, this time against the Tulane Green Wave, which is making its first postseason appearance since the Hawaii Bowl in 2002.
Louisiana has joined four other states in filing a so-called “friend of the court” brief in support of Mississippi’s lawsuit against the federal government over new flood insurance rates set to go into effect.
Kerry Wayne Bertrand was charged Monday for the alleged killing of his stepdaughter, Skylar Lee Credeur, a UL Lafayette chemistry major found dead in the bathtub of her family home in August.
Louisiana's state school board is considering a two-year delay for some consequences tied to the phase-in of more rigorous educational standards, called Common Core, at public schools.