"In the case of New Orleans, the model we used was the housing situation," says Scott. "The initial Red Cross estimate of houses destroyed was 267,000, and 75 percent of them are in New Orleans. So we argue that the strength and speed of the recovery will be limited by the availability of housing. If someone has eight restaurants, even if they open them back up again right now, they can't staff them because the workers don't have housing."
The housing formula generates sobering statistics on the post-Katrina economic outlook for the state. Even as Scott and his team of economists added 20,000-30,000 jobs for relief workers living in or commuting to New Orleans to their data, they arrived at a total of 337,000 jobs ' a number that effectively wipes out four decades of growth and puts the Crescent City at its 1963 employment levels.
Scott's estimates were also informed by personal experience. He has a townhouse in Old Metairie that took on more than 4 feet of water and has been back to the city numerous times to try and sort out insurance issues. And like so many other Louisiana residents, he has a hard time seeing a clear picture of the timetable for rebuilding efforts. "There's a limit on flood insurance, there's a shortage of contractors, problems with mold remediation â?¦ so when you look at the total number of homes damaged, it boggles the mind. Some people have asked what the margin of error is for this forecast, and we tried to hold our hands apart as far as we could. There's just so much uncertainty."
Even the staggering mid-80s Louisiana recession caused by the oil industry's downturn doesn't compare to Katrina's damage to the economy. "The size and geographic impact are the two main differences," says Scott. "The [oil] recession occurred over a six-year period, and we lost 9 percent of our jobs ' about 148,000 in the state. That's a huge hit, and it hit virtually every metro area in the state. Now we've lost twice as many jobs in about two months, but it's been like a rifle shot aimed directly at New Orleans."
With so much of the damage concentrated in the New Orleans region, Scott emphatically warns of a false sense of economic security in areas such as Baton Rouge, Acadiana and north Louisiana, which mostly emerged physically unscathed from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. "We're already doing surveys in Baton Rouge on how much business there relies on New Orleans, and it's a lot," he says. Suppliers from multiple industries have lost their New Orleans customer base, and the flip side is also true; restaurateurs in particular have scrambled to try and replace goods they bought from New Orleans. The overall ripple effect is significant. (Scott, for example, had four speaking engagements in New Orleans cancelled, and the status of his consulting contract with the city of Kenner is up in the air.)
While the metro New Orleans area staggers to get back on its feet, Scott says displaced residents and businesses will spur economic growth in other regions of the state. He estimates that Baton Rouge will be able to accommodate up to 50,000 new residents and 23,000 jobs, making the capital city the state's largest metropolitan area in 2006. Retail operations in Houma should also increase. Statewide, the already-booming construction industry will make further gains. And oil industry infrastructure repairs will bring increased employment in the Lafayette region.
"[Lafayette] has the servicing firms that are going to be charged with repairing structures in the Gulf of Mexico," he says. "As a result, we bumped up Lafayette by 4,000 jobs in 2006. It's going to take a minimum of one year to repair some of these pipelines and platforms. The Chevron Typhoon, a billion dollar facility, has been inverted. So if you're a fisherman, imagine a $1 billion bobber turned upside down."
While those repairs are under way, Scott says New Orleans' main economic engines ' the petrochemical industry, tourism, shipbuilding and the port system ' can only recover as fast as the housing situation in New Orleans improves. "Bollinger and Avondale ship yards and Lockheed Martin will come back, but they're struggling because they're labor-intensive and workers need places to live.
"The most problematic area is tourism," he adds. "Jazz Fest and Mardi Gras will come back at a smaller level to start, but the biggest problem is convention business. In the past, if you were a convention planner looking at dates between June and November [during hurricane season], there was always a little red flag. Now it's a big red flag."
Ultimately, Scott says federal relief money is the biggest question mark ' and he's discouraged by recent developments. "There are some recent proposals like the Louisiana Recovery Act, where the federal government will buy property and people will then get some of their wealth back. For some people, injection of federal money is going to be critical, because at least part of their wealth is built up in their homes. And we have to do something about the levee system. If you do want to rebuild, who's going to loan you money in an area that's been flooded when the levee system hasn't been fixed? But the unnerving thing is to watch the change [at the federal level] since we've gotten further and further away from the hurricane. The drop in sympathy level is palpable."
If you didn’t know Alison, Sheriff Mike Neustrom’s 42-year-old daughter who died Wednesday after battling cancer for a year, you missed out on something really special.
Asserting that the LPSB's taxpayer-funded report on the results of the superintendent investigation is a public record, TDA's executive editor takes the gloves off.
Tyson Dupuis accumulated three OWI arrests in less than 10 years, with his most recent resulting in the death of an 18-year-old Crowley woman in 2011, yet his punishment would only amount to a year in prison.
Hugh Freeze has firsthand knowledge of the Sun Belt Conference, having coached at Arkansas State in 2011 before moving on to Mississippi.
A federal grand jury has charged a 56-year-old Lafayette man with income tax fraud for allegedly failing to report hundreds of thousands of dollars in income.
Pistorius guilty of culpable homicide; escaped school shooter caught; body odor test resisted and more national and international news for Friday, September 12, 2014.
Friday's Blogs from the Bog!
The LPSB voted 6-3 to accept charges against Superintendent Pat Cooper and pave the way for his upcoming termination hearing.
The timing of U.S. District Judge Richard Haik's semi-retirement paves the way for a Dem, and perhaps the first African American, to serve the Western District.
After months of clamoring for Superintendent Pat Cooper’s job, the LPSB will get its chance this afternoon to get the ball rolling with a special meeting at 2:30 p.m.
Voters trying to sift through the details of 14 constitutional amendments on the Nov. 4 ballot have a guide they can consult.
Delcambre now has a boat launch that can handle four boats at a time and a new pavilion for the seafood and farmer's market.
Drew Brees sees plenty to like about the way New Orleans' offense is shaping up, even if it's not yet reflected in the win column.
About a week after mistakenly using a Twitter hashtag for the Cincinnati Bengals to wish the New Orleans Saints good luck, the Cassidy camp refers to the EPA as the “Energy Protection Agency.”
Lawmakers launched their latest effort Wednesday to try to chip away at a $12 billion backlog of road and bridge repair and improvement work across Louisiana, seeking ideas to raise new transportation dollars in an anti-tax environment.
The congressman has rejected two other debates in which Landrieu had agreed to participate.
When we got the emergency-meeting agenda via email today we thought, “Hmmm ... cooler on the blink ... coroner ... corpses ... this could be bad.”
The attorney representing LPSB member Mark Cockerham in a lawsuit calling for the vacancy of his District 7 seat is questioning an attempt to expedite the process.
The high-profile nature of the OWI scandal in the 15th Judicial District Attorney’s Office may result in a venue change for the upcoming trial of Robert Williamson.
In a response, Cassidy didn't retract the comment. He says Reid runs the Senate "dictatorially," not allowing votes on items that he doesn't support. Cassidy said: "Any other interpretation of my remarks is a false controversy."
If Joe Riley is as indecisive on the bench as he was about what office he would seek, we’ll all be in big trouble.
Her main Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, has announced only one debate commitment.
"Ask your friends and neighbors in law enforcement and they’ll tell you who to vote for, and that person is Keith Stutes, our next DA."
Gov. Bobby Jindal will have to wait a few months to have his day in federal court in his lawsuit against the Obama administration over the Common Core education standards.
Saints safety Kenny Vaccaro rattled off some of the basics of tackling that are taught in youth football as he discussed where the focus of New Orleans' defense should be this week.