The shifting of lives along the Gulf Coast is still staggering to comprehend, comparable to the 1930s Dust Bowl, the 1927 floods and the 1755 exile of the Acadians from Nova Scotia. Still, the 2005 hurricane season stands alone ' according to state figures, Katrina and Rita displaced more than 780,000 people in Louisiana alone.
The end result could be diminished federal funding, which is based on population numbers, and the loss of two seats in Congress over the next 14 years. There are also indications that the shift of political power from New Orleans to other regions around the state is strengthening. It's a sullen cause-and-effect scenario where population equals money and influence, a state of affairs that demographers and political observers alike believe is approaching, despite the lack of reliable, current data.
"No one is geared up to take a real census except the U.S. Census Bureau, and they only do it every 10 years," says State Demographer Karen Paterson. "And it's a moving target right now because people don't stay in one place. A lot of things are still unresolved."
At deadline, the census was set to release its American Community Survey for cities with populations greater than 65,000 and less than 250,000. It has a large margin of error and only counts people living in households. Another population survey for the devastated areas, this time based on the state's administrative records, is also expected in December.
"Everyone is waiting on Katrina numbers, and this isn't it," Paterson says.
However, a rapid-response survey recently conducted in the New Orleans region, including St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes, could be released over the next couple of months. While it will make for an interesting read, Paterson says the real story will emerge with the official 2010 decennial census.
What we already know for sure is Louisiana was hemorrhaging residents prior to last year's hurricane season. Based on the most recent and complete statewide census survey released six years ago, 75,000 people moved out of Louisiana from 1995 to 2000, with 47,000 people leaving New Orleans during that time period. Shreveport-based demographer and political analyst Elliott Stonecipher says the storms placed this historical trend in overdrive. Recent reports using postal records reveal the wave of people moving back into New Orleans has slowed, and Stonecipher believes a second wave of people moving out is about to occur.
"We don't want to believe that any of the people that stayed are going to leave, but they are," he says. "They're going to leave because the schools didn't work out. They're going to leave because of Entergy. They're going to leave because of the [New Orleans] mayor's race and state politics. They are fed up, and they do not want to wait anymore."
This is the loss Stonecipher says will largely be picked up by the 2010 census, which will in turn be used to determine federal funding and draw new election boundaries. Even before the storms, Louisiana needed another 7,000 new residents over the next five years to keep from losing a congressional seat. In fact, a 30-year estimate by the census bureau ranked Louisiana 49th overall in growth. The situation is so dire that Stonecipher says another congressional seat could be lost following the 2020 population census unless something "unforeseen" happens.
The traditional epicenter of power in state politics is expected to shift as well. As more people leave the New Orleans region, Stonecipher says its fabled hold over the state Legislature will further deteriorate. There are currently 21 seats in the House and Senate that encompass or touch on Orleans Parish, out of 144 total seats statewide. But if the population doesn't pick back up in Orleans Parish in coming years, New Orleans may be confined to just a few seats in each chamber through redistricting.
The Baton Rouge region has gained the most from the tumultuous shifts. Outlying parishes like Livingston and Ascension were already growing due to "white flight," and the city's school enrollments recently beat earlier estimates. Baton Rouge's proximity to the interstate system and the New Orleans region has also worked in its favor.
Exactly how many people are in Baton Rouge now is anybody's guess. James Richardson, an economics professor at Louisiana State University, told MSNBC that he expects a permanent population increase of 25,000 to 50,000 in the greater Baton Rouge area; the Baton Rouge's mayor's office released a 100,000 head-count figure in the past year, and a federal survey found a 60,000 spike earlier this year. "I have a sense people are going to be staying there," Paterson says.
Lafayette is stuck in the middle of the trend, Stonecipher says. The Hub City took on additional residents after Katrina and many have stayed, but the people who sought refuge from Rita were less permanent and may have been counted in those numbers. That's sparked ongoing debates in the business community about overbuilding to suit a population that might be smaller than it seems.
Further north are signs of relatively minor growth in Shreveport, even though a recent survey showed a drop in residents. Stonecipher believes that dip might hold if baby boomers and retirees don't start looking toward the state line to spend Road Home money. "There are a lot of people saying Shreveport is now the second largest city in the state, and that's not going to end up being true," he says. "It is a little further than most evacuees will want to live, and there is a huge cultural barrier with anything north of Alexandria."
The sleeper gains may be in cities located in the Bayou Parish region, like Houma and Thibodaux. As the state dispenses money to people for rebuilding, and the recovery of hard-hit places like St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes remains uncertain, white-collar families might look further down the coast for a similar lifestyle.
"It just seems to make so much sense to me," Stonecipher says. "It depends how serious we are about coastal restoration issues and hurricane issues. Absent those fears, though, these areas could disproportionately gain."
Anything can happen between now and 2010. The New Orleans region will continue its rebirth as federal dollars fill state coffers and homes will be rebuilt in increasing numbers. But below the surface, Stonecipher says a significant segment of the population is going to grow weary with the slow pace of recovery and the incessant noise of political chatter. "Some people might be fooled because of all the money being spent and because they can see the brick and mortar," he says. "But dollars being spent does not mean healthy and fundamental change. We can't allow ourselves to believe every single person is coming home and that they'll stay here when they do."
February trial date indicates parties were unable to negotiate a settlement.
Gov. Bobby Jindal has been viewed as a health care policy wonk, and he's tried to build on that image ahead of a likely 2016 presidential campaign, positioning himself as the candidate with substantive ideas.
Jerry Jones watched what he called the best effort he's seen in 25 years as owner of the Dallas Cowboys in the first half, and that was before Tony Romo had the longest scramble of his career and DeMarco Murray finished off yet another 100-yard game.
Two of the most recognizable women in Republican politics, Sarah Palin and Mary Matalin, have been heavily involved in Louisiana’s current election cycle.
Even though the Louisiana Democratic Party has thrown its support behind former Gov. Edwin Edwards’ congressional bid, national Democrats are not expected to follow suit.
Volcano recovery suspended; Mossad recruiting online; high fees in Ferguson and more national and international news for Monday, September 29, 2014.
Monday's Blogs from the Bog!
“[Mike] is no longer the energetic ADA that his recent ad is trying to portray. I just think Mike needs to get the hell out.” — Kermit Harson, DA Mike Harson’s brother
The New Orleans Saints have listed Jonathan Goodwin as questionable for Sunday night's game in Dallas, raising the prospect that second-year pro Tim Lelito will start at center for the first time.
The endorsements keep coming for District 9 LPSB candidate Jeremy Hidalgo, who picked up his fifth vow of support Thursday, this time from the Chamber’s political action committee.
Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter will be out knocking on doors this weekend with anti-abortion activists encouraging people to vote against his colleague, Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu.
The ACLU of Louisiana has sued Abbeville's mayor and police chief over a policy barring police from any social media use showing the city in a bad light.
Prospective Republican presidential candidates are expected to promote "religious liberty" at home and abroad at a gathering of religious conservatives Friday, with anti-Obama speeches from the likes of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.
The American Zombie blog by New Orleans independent journalist Jason Berry has a photograph of U.S. District Court Judge Carl Barbier having dinner with Lafayette attorney Pat Juneau — yeah, that Pat Juneau, the BP claims administrator whose fate Barbier will soon decide.
But retirees and employees who face the higher deductibles and out-of-pocket costs responded angrily, telling lawmakers that they shouldn't be held responsible for what they consider the Jindal administration's mismanagement of the Office of Group Benefits.
Indictment accuses ‘chef’ who claims to work for the needy of stealing from a disabled man in his care.
Gov. Bobby Jindal's top budget adviser says the state employee health insurance program will face a dire financial scenario without the heavily criticized changes planned by the administration.
Louisiana's last execution was in 2010, and plans for the next lethal injection have been put on hold amid an ongoing legal dispute about the drugs that would be used. More than 80 people are on death row, awaiting execution, in Louisiana.
If the Saints' defense hasn't corrected early season errors it could be in for a long Sunday night.
U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu is traveling to the Citgo refinery near Lake Charles to highlight her successful stalling of a bill to impose sanctions against human-rights abusers in Venezuela's government.
Gov. Bobby Jindal will be spending his next few days in the key presidential campaign states of New Hampshire and Iowa.
The Chamber’s Empower PAC has endorsed its second candidate for this year’s LPSB elections, announcing it will support the reelection campaign of District 5 incumbent Kermit Bouillion.
And he just lost the frat-bro vote!
Republican congressional candidate Zach Dasher is getting an advertising assist from his famous "Duck Dynasty" family.
BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration skipped required legal steps in making changes to the health insurance plans that cover state employees, teachers and retirees, the state attorney general's office said Tuesday.