Meteorologists are watching a thunderstorm system associated with a tropical wave in the western Caribbean — a system that could become the first tropical depression in the Atlantic Basin this year. KATC meteorologist Dave Baker, in his Friday weather blog, writes: “Generally something developing in the Atlantic or even the eastern Caribbean during the month of June is rare, but the western Caribbean where the wave is located now, is considered one of the hot spots for development this time of year.” 

Models have been trying to develop this system for a few days, and most models do bring this to depression or named storm status in the next couple of days.  The track drifts it toward the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula.  With its proximity to land, the intensity models have backed off, keeping this disturbance as a tropical depression, or weak tropical storm into the Bay of Campeche.  A cold front is drifting southward and may reach the Gulf coast by Monday.  This could pull the system more northerly, but a cold front reaching the coast in late June is pretty rare.

Read Baker's full blog here.

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